With the election a mere three days away, two Memphis area Democrats continue to defy the odds and are now in a statistical dead heat for governor and an open U.S. House seat.
At the top of the ballot, Jerri Green is running an upstart campaign to succeed Republican Gov. Bill Lee. Her opponent, Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, has the endorsements of Lee and President Donald Trump. Green is joined by state Rep. Justin Pearson, who is squaring off against fellow state Rep. Brent Taylor for the vacant District 9 U.S. House seat.
Pearson defeated London Lamar with a 66% share of the vote in the Democratic primary after outgoing U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen tearfully announced his retirement. The 77-year old congressman called it quits after the state legislature approved a new gerrymandered map. Cohen has represented the district since 2007. Ballots cast in Memphis — once the state’s only majority Black voting bloc — are now split between three house districts.
In a typical midterm election, both Democratic candidates’ ambitions would likely end on Nov. 3. Tennessee hasn’t picked a Democrat for statewide office since Phil Bredesen was elected governor in 2006. It also has never elected a woman to the governor’s office. And in this election, both major party nominees are women.
For his part, Pearson is tasked with consolidating at least a plurality of a majority-White district that extends from Memphis to the suburbs of Nashville. He likely was introduced to many when he was removed from office after leading a gun control protest at the state capital. Pearson’s former district promptly sent the environmental activist back to Nashville via special election. He has been re-introducing himself during the campaign, and, he says, finding some common ground.
Governor’s race
But this isn’t a typical midterm. Firsts aside, Blackburn is running on two fronts. The MAGA-aligned candidate also faces a pesky challenge from center-right independent candidate David Hatley, who appears to have siphoned off a significant amount of her support. To make the race even more wild and wooly, Green faces a lesser challenge to her left from another independent candidate, Lauren Pinkston. Both Hatley and Pinkston have refused to end their campaigns.
A mid-October poll put Green within the margin of error. The survey by independent polling outfit Political Intelligence showed Blackburn with a slim 36% to 34% lead. Hatley’s numbers were eye-popping as well. With 19% support, the Elizabethton businessman presents more than a hurdle for Blackburn.
The senator disregarded the results. Her campaign pointed to an Oct. 15 Spry Strategies sampling that showed her with a 12% lead over Green. In addition to topping the Democrat 44%-32%, Hatley came down to Earth with 9%.
Around the same time, a Hatley-sponsored GOTV poll followed that gave Blackburn a 35%-30% lead over Green, and Hatley pulling closer at 26%. The independent candidate seized on the poll in a statement.
To make sense of the incompatible results, a look at previous polling may be helpful. An August Beacon poll showed Blackburn ahead of Green with a commanding 55%-34% lead. A month later, Green pulled within single digits, 45%-39%, in a TargetSmart/Progress Fund PAC poll. Hatley had risen to 10%.
If Blackburn’s lead is 12%, like the Spry Strategies poll reflected, it would mean that Green’s campaign actually lost ground in its final weeks. It would also mean that Tennessee is bucking a national trend, where red states are taking on hues of blue. The other polls cited suggest otherwise.
9th Congressional District
Then there’s Pearson’s race. Conventional wisdom would suggest the Democrat would draw minimal support from rural and suburban parts of the district. But polls reflect just the opposite. Once again, the Democratic Party candidate was within striking distance of Taylor. Pearson, who has outfundraised Taylor, only trails by 4% in a Democratic-aligned PACs TN Rise and Three Star PAC survey.
Pearson also has spent considerable time getting acquainted with voters across the district. “Traveling over these last few months here, we are more connected than we are divided,” Pearson told the Tri-State Defender after the primary.
One issue that could be contributing to the underdog’s momentum is data centers. Survey after survey reflects broad opposition to the tech facilities. The issue appears to unite voters across the political spectrum too. As candidates, Pearson, Green and Hatley have seized on the topic.
In one political ad, Pearson accuses Taylor of “rolling out the red carpet” for data centers, including “accepting campaign cash” from billionaires in exchange for support. Likewise, Hatley presented his own commercial that promises to “stop the data centers,” as images of Blackburn flash upon the screen.
Green recently voted for a failed 12-month moratorium on data centers as a member of the Memphis City Council. During meetings, she has discussed the resistance to the facilities she encountered on the campaign trail. “What they want is a moratorium so that we can talk to the community,” Green said at the council’s Oct. 20 meeting.
A few weeks earlier, Pearson was banned from council meetings after leading a protest in its chambers with a bullhorn. Many assembled were angered after a vote on the moratorium was postponed. A judge temporarily lifted the ban in time for Pearson to witness the failed vote.
Conversely, Blackburn and Taylor’s campaigns have been based largely on supporting the MAGA agenda. Trump’s official position on data centers is so bullish; he even suggested rebranding artificial intelligence “super intelligence.”
Taylor has run ads attacking Pearson for supporting “socialist policies” and funding of “transgender reassignment surgeries” for children. However, married Taylor also recently admitted to “sexting” nude photos of himself to other women.
Blackburn kicked off her campaign with an ad that features her crushing a fortune cookie in opposition to China. She also spent considerable resources covering her right flank. One negative ad brings up Hatley’s felony conviction for bank fraud in 1998.
Adding to the drama, President Trump has called for this election to be a referendum on his job performance. Voters appear poised to oblige the request. Early voting numbers point to a historic turnout and a likely wave election.
Republican candidates have struggled to provide a justification for an unpopular war with Iran. Rising gas prices, diesel in particular, have hindered prospects. Then there’s inflation. During the 2024 election, Trump was the more-trusted candidate on the economy. Whatever goodwill he had was squandered as the inflation rate climbed on his watch, with many blaming federal tariff policies. Instead of relief, consumers are struggling to put food on the table.
Numerous allegations of corruption that have contributed to a broad sense of dissatisfaction. The chief executive currently polls in the low 30’s in most surveys. It’s gotten so bad, Trump spent the last few weeks campaigning in red states to shore up GOP support. This includes recent stops in Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, and Nebraska. Tennessee was on the list too.
Due to his unpopularity, some Republican candidates have even asked the president to skip a visit. The environment has turned opposition to Trump’s agenda into a politically safe harbor. As a result, the Republican party is no longer angling to pick up seats, but trying to stem historic losses.
With all that in mind, one question remains. Will enough of Tennessee’s Republican voters defect or sit out the election for Democrats to capitalize on Nov. 3? According to independent tracking firm Votehub.com, the answer is no. Both Republican candidates remain near locks to win.
